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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time: 2023-09-16T16:22Z

Model Inputs:
2023-09-16T09:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=30.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=523.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2023-09-16T16:00Z

Model Outputs:
Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-09-19T18:55Z (+- 7 hours) [PE: 29.9 hr]
Duration of disturbance (hr) = 23.2 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.2
Possible Kp index:
(kp)90=3
(kp)135=4
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2023-09-19T14:31Z [PE: 29.4 hr]

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Note :
Parker Solar Probe (PSP) is not included in these WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulation results due to a planned perihelion pass. Based on PSP's current location and the observed CME's measured speed, it is separately estimated by the M2M Office that PSP may observe the CME around 2023-09-17T13:45Z.

Submitted on 2023-09-16T16:40Z by Chris Stubenrauch

A Notification with ID 20230916-AL-001 was sent on 2023-09-16T16:49Z
A Notification with ID 20230916-AL-002 was sent on 2023-09-16T17:16Z
A Notification with ID 20230917-AL-001 was sent on 2023-09-17T13:42Z


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